The causes of a war are always manifold. They are nested as a whole as matrioske that it produces the armed conflicts; they are multiplied, with chain reaction, from the levels strategic superior to the subordinates, up to the “beautiful casus”, the detonator that baits the
Nella war irakena, the “beautiful casus” it is the accusation of USA to Saddam, to develop and to hide weapons of destructions of mass.
Iraq, considered from USA, the terrorists' supporter enemies of the United States and its allies, are of already put by George W. Bush in the list of the “States scoundrel”, the nations, perfidious, hostile some mother America.La of all the next causes of the war is, without shade of doubt, the terrorist attack to USA of September 11, already next cause of two wars: Afganistan and Irak. With September 11 the times of the turn offensive politics and military of the United States they become mature.
The necessary inside and international consent to the support of the politics of Bush reaches elevated values. The scene consistent with the scenery geo-political unipolare is created followed to the collapse of the comunismo.Gli United States they rise to position of planetary absolute power. The dis-balancement also runs over the endemic Arab-Israeli crisis. The venir less than the Soviet support to States Arabs enemies of Israel, of America and of his allies, USA facilitates in the passage from the politics defensive of the bipolarism to the offensive of the unipolarism. America undertakes the street of the wars for the attainment of his/her own purposes geo-strategics .
The planetary reality can be represented with a based logical model on the entities in game and the relative relationships The entities are of varied kind: geopolitics (West and Arabic World); religious (Islam, Christianity Judaism); partner-political-economic-industrial (Primo I husk and third world); energetic (manufacturing Countries and oil suppliers, manufacturing Countries and oil buyers; Countries not producers and oil buyers. )Esse can be divided in sottoentitŕ: western (thread-Americans, western-antiamericani, Arabs thread-Americans, Arabic antiamericanis), anti-west (world Islamic integralist, States communist survivors, nostalgic of the ideologies of the XX century) .Israele is, then, peculiar entity of I detach. Founded upon his/her own religion, belonging to the sphere western-American, it constitutes a political reality expressed by the influential Jewish international community to global level. USA constitute predominant entity, dominating, them, the scene
Le principal correlations among these entities are of political order, military, religious, commercial. The model allows, more easily and rationally, to individualize the causes next and remote originatricis of the political contrasts flowed in war. The planetary politics of States Anointed you, tendente to also export his/her own political and economic model in the countries not democrats, finds natural contrasts really in the based powers on absolutist and dogmatic systems that you/they see threatened their existence.
The export of the democracy would make to dissolve the dictatorial regimes, teocratici and not teocratici. Here a primary cause of the violent contrast opposed Uniti.Clausewitz to the politics of States teaches: “the war is the prosecution of the politics with other means” and it is very more probable as great it is the discrepancy of power among adversaries.
The entities, which it was mentioned, belong to a system. It is known that the causes of the conflicts they are inherent in the systems they are summarized, almost always, in motives for historical order, political, economic, energetic, religious, of custom. They are differentiated, above all, for the importance that, of time in time, they assume in to determine the burst of the wars. In the case of Iraq, the predominant cause is the threat, serious for USA and its allies, of the politics of Saddam, brim to oppose the United States with support to the terrorism and with the development and the acquisition of weapons of destructions of mass. These, already dangerous by itself, they become dangerous in hand to a dictator without scruples that you/he/she has already made petition to them to exterminate adverse populations to his/her own regime.
The causes, to a level strategic superior, can be perceived in the control of the oil wells. (Doctrine “Cheney”) and in the theory of the unstable alliances finalized to the control of strategic areas. (Paul Wolfowitz)La causes energetic as that is not conclusive geo-politics of the American intention to realize a new order mondiale.Il imported oil last year from the countries Arabic OPECs you/he/she has been lowered since 47% of 80 to 25% of the total one. New great suppliers have appeared on the market. Russia produces 10 million oil barrels the day and n'esporta among 4. and the 5 million. Alone Venezuela covers 12% of the American import The control of the production of Iraq oil is important but not of absolute importance. It seems that the preponderant causes of the war in Iraq, are to seek him in the necessity to widen both the defensive perimeter of USA both, above all, the strategic control in the European-Asian region in which the west, is stretched out by the Atlantic without solution of continuity.
26/06/2003 Guerra in Iraq: Cronologia e Dossier
26/06/2003 Guerra in Iraq: Cause Prossime e Remote